大家好，今天英文读报 中文观点栏目将和大家聊聊人民币贬值方面的问题。今天在彭博社找了一篇文章，摘选了部分段落和大家一起分享。

Analysts Say PBOC Will Let Yuan Slide Past Key Threshold of 7 Per Dollar

The yuan is set to slide past 7 per dollar with scarcely a murmur as a range of metrics show the currency would still be relatively expensive against its non-dollar peers, analysts say.

The authorities will allow the currency to weaken past that key psychological barrier and merely seek to prevent a rapid decline that may cascade into a disorderly selloff. 

The 7 threshold has far less significance in a world where the dollar is rallying against everything. While the yuan has tumbled about 8% versus the greenback this year, it has strengthened against the currencies of major China’s export rivals such as Japan and South Korea. The yuan’s trade-weighted basket is just about where it was at the end of December. 

The People’s Bank of China aims to defend seven, It’s the speed that matters. The yuan will still be expensive even after dollar-renminbi breaches seven,

While allowing the yuan to slide beyond 7, the central bank may continue “to warn off aggressive yuan bears via explicit communication and implicit interventions,”

How China manages the yuan’s decline is of vital importance to global financial markets, given the country accounts for an ever larger proportion of world trade. The currency’s level is particularly crucial in Asia, where it plays the role of an anchor for its peers. Economists are also watching to see whether its slide deters the PBOC from further easing policy to support a slowing economy.

The global focus on the yuan intensified this week as the dollar’s rally gathered pace in the fallout from Jackson Hole. China’s currency slipped to a two-year low of 6.923 Monday and ended August with a decline of 2.2%, a sixth month of losses. 

The last two occasions the yuan broke below 7, the backdrop was very different.

The currency tumbled as much as 1.6% on Aug. 5, 2019, amid a tumult in financial markets caused by the US-China trade war. The yuan again weakened past 7 in February 2020 as the nation’s financial markets came under ferocious selling during the early days of the coronavirus outbreak. 

Risk of Outflows

A yuan weaker than 7 would still carry some risk — in the shape of a potential increase in capital outflows.

“Taking into account the dollar strength and the monetary policy divergence widening, tolerating renminbi depreciation above the 7 handle will risk un-anchoring RMB depreciation expectations and capital outflow risks. Still, the currency is likely test the 7 level in coming months.

The recent trend for flows has been mixed. Global funds boosted holdings of the nation’s bonds for the first time in six months in July, while stock inflows through the China-Hong Kong trading program remaining positive in August.

China will attract capital inflows with its positive long-term growth prospects, an official at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said Friday, adding that supply and demand in foreign exchange is basically balanced.  

PBOC Toolkit 

China’s authorities have plenty of options to signal discomfort with the pace of the yuan’s decline. So far, they have relied on the daily yuan fixing mechanism to limit the currency’s movement, setting a stronger-than-expected rate for eight straight days through Friday. 

Other steps they can take include making another cut to banks’ required reserve ratio for foreign-currency holdings, further tweaking the daily fix, or making verbal intervention

Adding back the so-called counter-cyclical factor to adjust the fixing levels, or reimposing rules to increase the cost of buying dollar-yuan forwards would probably only take place at a much later stage.

翻译如下：

分析师称中国人民银行将让人民币跌破 7 的关键门槛

分析师称，由于一系列指标显示人民币兑非美元货币仍将相对昂贵，人民币兑美元将跌破 7。

当局将允许货币贬值超过这一关键心理关口，并仅仅寻求防止可能演变成无序抛售的快速下跌。

在美元兑一切货币上涨的世界中，7 门槛的意义要小得多。尽管人民币兑美元今年下跌了约 8%，但兑日本和韩国等中国主要出口对手的货币却走强。人民币的贸易加权篮子与 12 月底的水平差不多。

中国人民银行的目标是保卫七，重要的是速度。即使美元兑人民币突破七，人民币仍然会很贵，

在允许人民币跌破 7 的同时，央行可能会继续“通过明确的沟通和隐性干预来警告激进的人民币空头”，

鉴于中国在世界贸易中的占比越来越大，中国如何应对人民币贬值对全球金融市场至关重要。该货币的水平在亚洲尤为重要，在亚洲，它扮演着其他货币锚的角色。经济学家也在关注其下滑是否会阻止中国央行进一步放宽政策以支持放缓的经济。

随着美元在杰克逊霍尔事件的影响下加速上涨，本周全球对人民币的关注加剧。人民币周一跌至两年低点 6.923，8 月底下跌 2.2%，连续第六个月下跌。

最近两次人民币跌破7，背景大不相同。

在中美贸易战引发金融市场动荡的情况下，该货币在 2019 年 8 月 5 日下跌了 1.6%。 2020 年 2 月，由于中国金融市场在冠状病毒爆发初期遭到猛烈抛售，人民币在 2020 年 2 月再次走弱。

外流风险

人民币低于 7 仍然会带来一些风险——表现为资本外流的潜在增加。

“考虑到美元走强和货币政策分歧扩大，容忍人民币在7点以上贬值将面临人民币贬值预期失控和资本外流风险。尽管如此，该货币仍可能在未来几个月测试 7 水平。

最近的流动趋势喜忧参半。全球基金在 7 月六个月来首次增持国家债券，而通过中港贸易计划的股票流入在 8 月保持正数。

国家外汇管理局的一位官员周五表示，中国将以其长期积极的增长前景吸引资本流入，并补充说外汇供需基本平衡。

中国人民银行工具包

中国当局有很多选择来表示对人民币贬值的步伐感到不安。到目前为止，他们依靠每日人民币定价机制来限制货币的波动，截至周五连续八天设定高于预期的汇率。

他们可以采取的其他措施包括再次下调银行的外汇储备要求、进一步调整每日固定利率或进行口头干预

加回所谓的逆周期因素以调整定价水平，或重新制定规则以增加购买美元兑人民币远期的成本可能只会在更晚的阶段发生。

这篇彭博社的文章表达了一个主要的观点就是，中国央行将适时介入，不会放任人民币自由落体下跌的，有序贬值到7是可以被接受的。

我们来看看欧洲，由于经济前景日益黯淡，欧元兑美元日前已跌破1美元，一直难以走出0.9~1.1美元区间，只能区间震荡，英镑也一度跌破1.15美元水平，后市依然存在下行压力。

亚币方面，日元兑美元也跌破140日元的心理关卡，随后触及24年低点，尽管官方继续口头干预汇市，警告将采取适当行动，但市场似乎并不买账，仍由于美日收益率差将继续扩大，大量押注日元将进一步贬值。一段时间以来，亚洲货币一直承受着沉重的抛售压力，韩元本周触及13年低点。

现在市场可能最关心的就是人民币能否跌破“7”了。因为当前人民币贬值压力来自强势美元，强劲的出口和贸易顺差不断创新高，而不是为了保持整数关卡，中国央行并不会过渡干预，不过会控制人民币有序贬值，这样对中国经济的伤害最小。

要知道，资本是逐利的，美国这边拼命升息，全世界的资金自然会流向美国，我们看到其他亚洲国家贬值的幅度要远远高于中国。如果人民币没有政府资金护盘，大幅度下跌那也是大概率的事情了。

事实上，中国是世界第二大经济体，对于其他国家来说，人民币已然成为了很多新兴市场国家的储备货币，而且相对于他国货币贬值的幅度，中国即使贬破7，那也没有什么，中国完全可以承受，而且，中国也可转嫁一些风险出去。这就是强国与弱国的根本差别，面对金融风暴，弱国或会破产，而强国却可以安然渡过。

现在您还怕人民币贬值吗？

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